posted at 1:31 pm on September 14, 2016 by Allahpundit
A Reuters/Ipsos survey released this week gave Trump a narrow edge in a two-way race, 43 percent to 41 percent — his first lead in Colorado in the 2016 election. It follows two other recent polls showing the presidential race as a dead heat or within 5 percentage points…
“Anybody who thought Hillary Clinton was going to win the state of Colorado by double digits was dreaming,” said Ridder, a veteran of six presidential campaigns. “The history in Colorado shows that it is difficult for a Democrat or a Republican to get over 50 percent of the vote.”…
Republican pollster David Flaherty at Magellan Strategies conducted a Aug. 29-31 poll that showed Clinton with a 41 percent to 36 percent lead among likely voters in a four-way race, just outside the 4.4 percentage point margin of error.
But he cautions against Trump’s camp getting too optimistic. “Trump is not gaining in momentum or support. Gary Johnson is,” he said, referring to the Libertarian candidate for president, who is getting significant support in Colorado.
Clinton led by 12 in one poll of Colorado in early August, then by eight in a poll taken a week later, then by five in the Magellan poll mentioned above, and now she trails by two in the latest Reuters poll. WaPo’s recent 50-state survey found her leading by two head-to-head in CO and dead even with Trump at 37 percent in the four-way race. There’s every reason to believe the state has tightened significantly. What Flaherty says about Johnson is true, too: Colorado is consistently one of his best states. He hit 15 percent in one poll taken there this month and reached 16 percent in another, then hit 16 again in the WaPo poll. There’s a strong libertarian base in CO, especially among young voters; Johnson actually topped Trump for second place among the 18-29 group in one poll of the state not long ago. If Trump pulls the upset there, it’s likely to be because Johnson is siphoning off enough young adults from Clinton to make a winning vote share for Trump in the mid-40s possible. Which is yet another reason why Trump is being foolish in not demanding that Johnson be allowed to debate. He could end up being a Nader to Hillary’s Al Gore because of his appeal to twentysomethings. If you’re Trump, whose base skews older, why wouldn’t you want him in the spotlight?
As for Nevada, yep, he’s ahead there now too. That’s not as much of a shock as Colorado since NV has been close throughout the summer, but this is further evidence of a Clinton slide. She led by four in Monmouth’s last poll of the state and now trails by two. Of note: The poll was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday, which means it’s pricing in reaction to Clinton’s “deplorables” remark and her swoon over the weekend. And lo and behold, suddenly Trump’s ahead.
Among Silver State voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 42% back Clinton. Another 8% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3% say they will choose Nevada’s unique “none of these candidates” ballot option. Monmouth’s July poll found Clinton leading Trump by 45% to 41%, with Johnson at 5% and none of the above at 4%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein will not appear on the ballot in Nevada.
Among self-identified Republicans, 88% support Trump, which is identical to his 88% support in July. Among Democrats, 90% support Clinton, which is similar to her 92% support in July. Independents have shifted, however, now giving Trump a clear 43% to 29% advantage over Clinton, with 17% supporting Johnson. Two months ago, the independent vote was divided at 39% for Trump, 37% for Clinton, and 10% for Johnson.
Weirdly, although Trump’s and Clinton’s favorable numbers are similar, hers are steady while his have slipped a bit further. And yet he’s ahead narrowly now whereas she was ahead before.
We’ll need more polling to have a better idea of how much of Trump’s polling improvement lately is due to the “deplorables”/fainting double whammy, but here’s what the LA Times national tracking poll looks like two days later. Pretty dramatic, no?
She’s down three points since Saturday, the day after the “deplorables” comment and the day before the swoon. He’s up three points, meanwhile, and at 46.7 percent, he’s currently enjoying his best numbers since his post-convention bounce in late July. His lead of 4.7 points is also his biggest since July 29th. It seems highly likely that the next set of state and national polls taken this week, incorporating the fallout from Clinton’s rough weekend, will show better numbers for him too. Which means that Hillary had better have some solid debates. If she doesn’t, she’s going to Buckner this election.