Looks like Chuck Schumer’s sales job on a new Biden Rule Plus hasn’t closed the deal with voters. A new NBC News/Survey Monkey poll shows a large majority of respondents preferring a confirmation vote before the midterms. Only Democrats oppose the idea, and then only a little more than half of that demographic:
A majority of Americans believe the Republican-led Senate should vote on President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee before the November midterm elections, undercutting the Democratic argument that it should be delayed until after the pivotal fall elections, according to a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll.
More than six in 10 Americans, or 62 percent, said Trump’s nominee, who will be announced on Monday, should be confirmed or rejected before the elections in which control of the House and Senate are at stake. About three in 10, or 33 percent, said the Senate should wait until after the elections, the poll found.
Sixty-six percent of Democrats and 60 percent of Republicans said Trump’s nominee would be an important factor in their vote in the midterms. However, less than half of independents, 46 percent, said it would be on their mind when casting their November ballot.
The vast majority of Republicans surveyed, 85 percent, said the Senate’s vote on the nominee should take place before the election. Roughly six in 10 Independents, or 61 percent, agreed. However, more than half of Democrats, 55 percent, believe the voting on a new justice should wait.
So much for Schumer’s effort to delay the confirmation. Of course, he’ll still try to obstruct the nominee or at least slow the process down, but Democrats won’t have much political support for that maneuver. The confirmation of the new justice will likely be the highest-profile continuing story other than the midterms themselves in September and possibly into October. If these numbers hold up, obstructionism and foot-dragging will not be popular and might end up damaging their prospects in November.
The full data doesn’t include demographic breakdowns, but it has some other eye-popping good news for Republicans. Donald Trump gets his best approval ratings in this series all year at 48/50, up from 45/52 a month ago. His strongly approve number hit a new high (29%) while his strongly disapprove number remained at the year-long low of 40%. On top of that, the generic congressional ballot narrowed to a three-point lead for Democrats (43/40), down from seven points the last time the question was asked in February (44/37). The momentum seems to be rolling toward Republicans with just four months to go before the midterms.
It’s not all good news for conservatives on the Supreme Court opening. The NBC poll showed majority support for Roe v Wade (61%), with only 31% wanting it overturned. Another poll out this morning from Morning Consult concurs. A majority in their poll wants a new Supreme Court justice that supports abortion rights:
With questions about precedent and Roe v. Wade set to feature heavily in the debate around the upcoming confirmation process for Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s successor, a new Morning Consult/Politico poll finds most voters want his replacement to support abortion rights.
According to the online survey, conducted June 28-29 — after Kennedy, 81, announced he was retiring from the bench — 52 percent of respondents said they hoped the next justice would support abortion rights. That includes 73 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of independents. For independents, that was more than double the share (24 percent) who said the next justice should oppose abortion rights.
Twenty-nine percent of voters, including 54 percent of Republicans, said they hope the next justice would oppose abortion rights, while 31 percent of GOP voters said the opposite.
How much of a problem will this be? The one finalist who has the most visibility on Roe is Amy Coney Barrett; this indicates that she might not get an overwhelming wave of support outside of the GOP. Trump might want to think about someone who could more effectively stave off the inevitable Roe questions during the confirmation as a means to get enough political cover so that it doesn’t become a political issue. Unless, of course, a big political fight is what Trump actually wants out of his nomination. If so, this suggests it might not turn out entirely to Trump’s favor.