Personal Liberty Poll
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Optimism about the nation’s economic future is at its highest level in years following Donald Trump’s election to the presidency. But continuing international uncertainty, central bank manipulation and lingering questions about the feasibility of some of the president-elect’s more ambitious plans mean caution is key.
According to the results of a recent CNBC economic survey, Americans feel better about the nation’s economic situation than they have since before President Barack Obama’s election.
The surge was powered by Republicans and independents reversing their outlooks. Republicans swung from deeply pessimistic, with just 15 percent saying the economy would improve in the next year, to strongly optimistic, with 74 percent believing in an economic upswing. Optimism among independents doubled but it fell by more than half for Democrats. Just 16 percent think the economy will improve.
A majority of Americans tell CNBC they are “comfortable and prepared to support” a Trump presidency. The 56 percent of respondents who now back the president-elect represent a sharp change from the 43 percent who were asked the question just before the election in November by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. The percentage is driven by 91 percent of Republicans supporting Trump but also 54 percent of independents and even 23 percent of Democrats.
The projections from average Americans mirror projections from global economic forecasters.
Last month, the Global Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development predicted Trump’s plan to slash business taxes and devote more than $500 billion to infrastructure improvements will likely double U.S. economic growth heading into 2018.
“GDP is projected to return to a moderate growth trajectory in 2017 and strengthen in 2018, mainly due to the projected fiscal stimulus, which takes effect particularly in 2018,” the OECD said in its report.
And the increasing economic confidence, at least for now, is backed by positive changes in the economic landscape since Trump was named the victor of the 2016 election.
The New York Times reported over the weekend: “The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 5.6 percent since the election map turned more red than blue; all the major stock indexes hit records yet again on Friday. Consumer confidence levels released on Friday showed they had jumped to a two-year high.”
The rising confidence is good news for the incoming Trump administration, especially as establishment elements within both parties in addition to the mainstream media are working overtime to delegitimize the new president before he ever steps foot in the Oval Office.
And Americans shouldn’t discount those attacks.
The Federal Reserve, which after years of interest rate insanity to artificially plump the Obama economy is due for a correction, will likely be the first source of trouble for any Trump-led turnaround.
The central bank’s planners are preparing to hike rates during the early portion of Trump’s presidency, a move that will depress much of the economic good news Americans are hearing now.
Rate hikes will mean Trump will have to work against a natural correction that is going to make the nation’s economic situation worse before it gets better.